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Author: Alan LittleDate: 2020-07-20

EUR set to target highest USD rates since 2019

Euro traders seem likely to be in for a quieter week this week after having to navigate a series of crucial events over the last seven days.

Traders had to work around the European Central Bank meeting last Thursday, which left Eurozone monetary policy unchanged, as well as the weekend’s special European Council meeting.

The meeting discussed a recovery fund for countries in the EU that have been the hardest hit by the COVID-19 pandemic crisis.

However, euro bulls are expected to target at a level of 1.15 for EUR/USD, which has not been reached since 31st January 2019.

That is unless safe havens such as the US dollar receive a flow of money from fears of a second wave of coronavirus infections.

A run of reports of subpar corporate earnings and more disputes between the US and China could also affect their target.

EUR/USD almost hit that figure again four months ago back on 9th March when it reached 1.1497, which was followed by some volatile trading but is again nearing that level following recent gains by the pair.

There are still some events or data points that could move the euro in the upcoming week.

Monday will kick off a fifth round of Brexit talks between the EU and the UK, though it will take until Thursday for any important data to be released in the form of a Germany consumer confidence report from the GfK market research company.

Thursday will also see the release of July’s ‘flash’ consumer confidence number from the Eurozone.

There are expected to be improvements from the previous month in both of them, as is the case with the flash purchasing managers’ July indexes for the Eurozone and a number of constituent nations, which will be released on Friday.

The big question is if any PMIs, composite, manufacturing or services, will be able to rise over the 50 level that separates expansion from contraction.

If so, this could help to take the EUR/USD up to or even over the 1.15 figure.

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